September Concurrency Numbers

[Rollie]

<a href='http://www.warcraftrealms.com/temp/activity-0907.htm'><img src='http://www.warcraftrealms.com/temp/activity-0907_files/image001.gif' width='300' height='200'></a>

It's that time of the month again and we have calculated the September concurrency numbers provided by the <a href='http://www.warcraftrealms.com/censusplus.php'>CensusPlus</a> UI Addon.

As expected, the downward trend of concurrent players continued in September, dropping the average number of players online even closer to pre-Burning Crusade levels.

If this current rate of decline continues, October will show even fewer concurrent players than the month prior to Burning Crusade's release. If numbers do drop below that threshold, it will be the first time in WoW's history that a marked decline has eaten into the 'original' growth of players prior to the Burning Crusade spike.

The question becomes, how much farther will the numbers slide before Wrath of the Lich King becomes available? I do not anticipate that WotLK will be out before Summer '08, and it could be farther out than that. How far will WoW's numbers slide before then?

As for 2.3, I do not think the patch will bring a large number of players back and if anything will likely only keep numbers from declining further in the month it is released.

Only the release of Wrath of the Lich King will have any serious effect on the current downward trend of players, and with other games seemingly on the horizon, I have to wonder if WoW's concurrent player base has peaked and will now assume the standard rise and fall with expansions as is normally the case for MMO's.

[Hybuir]

I also think that 2.3 wont bring back players but will bring to the table the ease of learning the playstyles of other classess with the increased XP gain, and decreased XP thresholds for leving up your alts. Altogether Blizzard seems to be just wanting to cash out on BC and WotLK sales instead of a steady base of players, as the numbers suggest.
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[Alanthus]

Mmmm, it would seem likely that WoW will follow a similar trend that other MMO's have followed in the past, I would expect the decline to level off somewhat as the game is still gaining new players and there tends to be a "core" following that are more likely to stick with the same MMO. What I'm really curious about is the effect of another successful MMO on WoW population numbers, IMO the more time goes by the more likely it is that a new fantasy MMO that actually can compete with WoW in polish and stability will have a drastic effect. You have to hand it to Blizzard though, there is no way I thought they would be holding such strong numbers this long...
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[DM.]

The downward trend continues......
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[Balgair]

2.3 may help a little with the release of ZA... for casual players like myself who don't have access to 25-man raids, we've cleared Kara some time ago and haven't got anything left to do that's new; frankly I'm pretty bored at the moment and playing far less than I was during the first few months of TBC (granted various guild dramas haven't helped my motivation; when I do play atm half the time it's on Horde where I'm in a nice dead alt's guild and don't have to see anyone else). ZA might well help a bit, although how much I don't know.

I'm hoping WotLK comes sooner rather than later, anyway, as when I find most days there's not much that I actually want to do, something isn't right. I got bored enough that I abandoned my pacifist ways and started trying WSG on a lowbie alt the last couple of days - makes an interesting change anyway, though I still much prefer pve.
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[Tessia]

I\\\'m not so sure that the numbers will continue to drop. TBC brought us a big spike, yes, but before that there was a fairly continual trend of slow growth. Right now, the numbers are back to where they were right before TBC; my <i>guess</i> is that we\\\'ll see the numbers continue to hover around the current mark, and quite possibly (slowly) increase again. <p> <p>That said, I agree on TWOA not arriving for a while. TBC was announced about 15 months before release; we should be seeing TWOA in early November 2008, if that holds.
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[TheDeamon]

[Hybuir]

Hm... I hadn't even taken kid trends into consideration... I should :-/
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[DM.]

[Skyfire]