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August '07 Drawing
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Rollie
Site Admin


Joined: 28 Nov 2004
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Location: Austin, TX
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2007 3:54 pm    Post subject: August '07 Drawing Reply with quote

Tickets have been assigned and I will draw numbers shortly.

One prize last month went unclaimed, so this month we'll draw 3 winning tickets. If the winner is in the US or Canada, they will be awarded a $50 Amazon Gift certificate, as well as a World of Warcraft TCG Through the Dark Booster Deck Box (comes with 6 Booster Decks!)! For any winners outside of the US or Canada, they will be awarded a $100 Amazon gift certificate.

Winners must notify me by either posting in this thread, PM me through the site, or email to claim their ticket!



Good luck!

EDIT: The numbers are finally in! I know, I'm a slack =x

<img src='http://www.warcraftrealms.com/images/drawing/2007-08-drawing.jpg'>

2131
2855
4943


Last edited by Rollie on Sun Aug 12, 2007 10:08 am; edited 1 time in total
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Balgair
Araiceil


Joined: 30 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 07, 2007 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have 837 tickets, so I predict a lot of near-misses Very Happy Good luck everyone Smile
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Broximar-Bladefist



Joined: 10 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 8:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

837!?! And I thought I had a good chance with 21, lol.
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infchaosdrd



Joined: 25 Apr 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Those aren\\\'t bad odds, especially if he is going to draw 3 tickets, which triples your chance, or is mathematically the same as if he drew one ticket and you had 3*21=63 tickets. My math may be messed up, <p>but if you have 21 tickets out of 837, your chances are 21 tickets / 837 tickets * 3 tickets = 0.07527. As a Percantage .07527 is multiplied by 100, which gives you 7.527%. This should be the odds of winning once, based on 3 draws. Considering how many people submit their data, that does not seem like bad odds at all. Of course, I may be out of my mind. I have to do advanced calculus all the time for my physics and math B.S. I\\\'m about to get, but sometimes, my basic arithmetic sucks big time. <p> <p>Anyone Care to Check my Math! Id be more than happy to see your calculation for his chances to win 1 ticket if you have a more accurate probability calculation for his chances. <p> <p>But even if im off, 21 tickets is still a lot better than playing the lotto and hoping to get at least 4 numbers, know what I mean? <p> <p>Zaldor <p> <p>id: infchaosdrd
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Eyeball-Dragonmaw



Joined: 14 Aug 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

infchaosdrd wrote:
Those aren\\\'t bad odds, especially if he is going to draw 3 tickets, which triples your chance, or is mathematically the same as if he drew one ticket and you had 3*21=63 tickets. My math may be messed up,
<p>but if you have 21 tickets out of 837, your chances are 21 tickets / 837 tickets * 3 tickets = 0.07527. As a Percantage .07527 is multiplied by 100, which gives you 7.527%. This should be the odds of winning once, based on 3 draws. Considering how many people submit their data, that does not seem like bad odds at all. Of course, I may be out of my mind. I have to do advanced calculus all the time for my physics and math B.S. I\\\'m about to get, but sometimes, my basic arithmetic sucks big time.
<p>
<p>Anyone Care to Check my Math! Id be more than happy to see your calculation for his chances to win 1 ticket if you have a more accurate probability calculation for his chances.
%<p>
<p>But even if im off, 21 tickets is still a lot better than playing the lotto and hoping to get at least 4 numbers, know what I mean?
<p>
<p>Zaldor
<p>
<p>id: infchaosdrd



Well the only thing I see wrong with your math is you are dividing his 21 tickets into the 837 tickets Balgair earned. If you look at previous months drawings there is usually between 8-10k tickets issued.

837 ticket odds:

837/9000*3= 27.9%

21 ticket odds:

21/9000*3=0.7%
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Eyeball-Dragonmaw



Joined: 14 Aug 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

But really the odds are calculated by using the odds of how many losing tickets you have out of the total tickets issued (using 9k tickets for example)


837 tickets (8163/9000=90.7% of losing) Balgair
or 9.3% chance of winning times 3 chances 27.9%

21 tickets (8979/9000=99.8% of losing) Broximar
or 0.2% chance of winning times 3 chances 0.6%

172 tickets (8828/9000=98.1% of losing) Eyeball
or 2.9% chance of winning times 3 chances 8.7%

But of course its all odds, and it only takes 1 ticket to win.
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Veltor



Joined: 27 Nov 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ah, who cares. I\\\'m winning them all.
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Daerodon



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

quote=Eyeball <p>172 tickets (8828/9000=98.1% of losing) Eyeball <p>or 2.9% chance of winning times 3 chances 8.7% <p>/quote <p> <p>100-98.1=1.9 ... not 2.9 Wink
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Daerodon



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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

quote=Eyeball <p>172 tickets (8828/9000=98.1% of losing) Eyeball <p>or 2.9% chance of winning times 3 chances 8.7% <p>/quote <p> <p>100-98.1=1.9 ... not 2.9 Wink
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Eyeball-Dragonmaw



Joined: 14 Aug 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 08, 2007 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Daerodon wrote:
quote=Eyeball
<p>172 tickets (8828/9000=98.1% of losing) Eyeball
<p>or 2.9% chance of winning times 3 chances 8.7%
<p>/quote
<p>
<p>100-98.1=1.9 ... not 2.9 Wink


oops....

I hate math Smile
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Boudikiki



Joined: 02 Aug 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Excuse me, where do I see my numbers Embarassed ?
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Eyeball-Dragonmaw



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 2:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boudikiki wrote:
Excuse me, where do I see my numbers Embarassed ?



Look under MY WR PROFILE, and than on the right side you will see DRAWING TICKETS
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DM.
Census Tester


Joined: 03 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rollie hasn't drawn the numbers yet?
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infchaosdrd



Joined: 25 Apr 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for the correction, I read the table wrong. I thought that Rollie had 837 tickets, but it was another player that had 837 tickets. And you are saying that there are probably 9000 total tickets. Now that i think of it, that was how many there were the last several times. Oh well. Thanks for correcting my math and destroying my hopes. And the math follows, after the comment that you can calculate the odds by calculating the possibility of how many losing tickets you probably have, but the math is different than you think. Here are the odds of winning 1 ticket if he draws 3 out of any number of tickets, n being the total number of tickets, and x being the number of your tickets: <p> <p>x/n * 3(three drawings) * 100(to turn it into percaentage= <p> <p>x <p>- * 3 * 100 <p>n <p> <p>Also, as a fundamental mathematical rule, you can add percentages, but you cannot multiply them the way that has been done on this thread. Regardless of whether the odds are 2.9% or 1.9%, \\\'%\\\' means /100, so 2.9% * 2.9% * 2.9% = .029 * .029 * .029 * 100(to turn it back into a percentage.) I thought I saw someone multiplying percentages like that, that is why I put this here. <p> <p>Either way, good luck to everyone!! And how the Hell does someone get 837 tickets. This is my best month ever, and I have players on 3 servers, a Normal, RPPvP, and a PvP, and I got 26 tickets. I was patting myself on the back, I should by slapping myself in the face. You must do this for a living, putting a char on every single server, taking a census on each one, submitting them, then starting over. Are the prizes really worth that kind of trouble? <p> <p>Good luck Everyone! <p> <p>Zaldor <p> <p>aka infchaosdrd
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infchaosdrd



Joined: 25 Apr 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rollie, <p> <p>The last two CensusPlus.lua\\\'s I submitted came back with zero new characters and zero updates. I know for a fact I found new characters on each one, and I find it that neither had an update. Also, I did it from my alt characters that had just gone up 1 or 2 levels. That way, all my characters\\\' levels would show up properly on the My Characters page, and my characters\\\' levels are still the old levels. I will resubmit one more time just in case I was stupid and somehow for the first time in 5 months, I submitted the Censusplus.lua.bak file on accident two times in a row, but I do not think this is the case. I will post I message after I do this, and I know for sure that the files were not analyzed properly. <p> <p>And by the way, I do not mean to complain to much. I think what you are doing here is great, awesome for the game, and more importantly, bad ass for all the people that play the game. I doubt you are making $100,000 a year running this website (/emote punches himself in the face if Rollie is making that much) but its my belief that you are not doing this for the money. So thank you for running this site!
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Ceto
Shady Dealer


Joined: 16 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 12:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have a ticket this month. =)
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Eyeball-Dragonmaw



Joined: 14 Aug 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

infchaosdrd wrote:
Thanks for the correction, I read the table wrong. I thought that Rollie had 837 tickets, but it was another player that had 837 tickets. And you are saying that there are probably 9000 total tickets. Now that i think of it, that was how many there were the last several times. Oh well. Thanks for correcting my math and destroying my hopes. And the math follows, after the comment that you can calculate the odds by calculating the possibility of how many losing tickets you probably have, but the math is different than you think. Here are the odds of winning 1 ticket if he draws 3 out of any number of tickets, n being the total number of tickets, and x being the number of your tickets:
<p>
<p>x/n * 3(three drawings) * 100(to turn it into percaentage=
<p>
<p>x
<p>- * 3 * 100
<p>n
<p>
<p>Also, as a fundamental mathematical rule, you can add percentages, but you cannot multiply them the way that has been done on this thread. Regardless of whether the odds are 2.9% or 1.9%, \\\'%\\\' means /100, so 2.9% * 2.9% * 2.9% = .029 * .029 * .029 * 100(to turn it back into a percentage.) I thought I saw someone multiplying percentages like that, that is why I put this here.
<p>
<p>Either way, good luck to everyone!! And how the Hell does someone get 837 tickets. This is my best month ever, and I have players on 3 servers, a Normal, RPPvP, and a PvP, and I got 26 tickets. I was patting myself on the back, I should by slapping myself in the face. You must do this for a living, putting a char on every single server, taking a census on each one, submitting them, then starting over. Are the prizes really worth that kind of trouble?
<p>
<p>Good luck Everyone!
<p>
<p>Zaldor
<p>
<p>aka infchaosdrd



Well I think really it would go like this, but it isnt going to make much difference.

1/9000 first ticket
1/8999 second ticket
1/8998 third ticket

.....because after one ticket is drawn that ticket is no longer included if the same number happened to be rolled twice.
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Eyeball-Dragonmaw



Joined: 14 Aug 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DM. wrote:
Rollie hasn't drawn the numbers yet?



I guess not.....shortly means a week I guess.....lol
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Eyeball-Dragonmaw



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PostPosted: Fri Aug 10, 2007 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

infchaosdrd wrote:

<
<p>
<p>Either way, good luck to everyone!! And how the Hell does someone get 837 tickets. This is my best month ever, and I have players on 3 servers, a Normal, RPPvP, and a PvP, and I got 26 tickets. I was patting myself on the back, I should by slapping myself in the face. You must do this for a living, putting a char on every single server, taking a census on each one, submitting them, then starting over. Are the prizes really worth that kind of trouble?
<p>
<p>Good luck Everyone!
<p>
<p>Zaldor
<p>
<p>aka infchaosdrd


If you read some of Balgair's posts he uses a second account on his laptop and basically does census 24/7 on it.....or the whole time he is playing on his other puter which must be 24/7 or close to it....hehehehee
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Balgair
Araiceil


Joined: 30 Sep 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 11, 2007 12:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

infchaosdrd wrote:

<p>Either way, good luck to everyone!! And how the Hell does someone get 837 tickets. This is my best month ever, and I have players on 3 servers, a Normal, RPPvP, and a PvP, and I got 26 tickets. I was patting myself on the back, I should by slapping myself in the face. You must do this for a living, putting a char on every single server, taking a census on each one, submitting them, then starting over. Are the prizes really worth that kind of trouble?


I don't do it for the prizes, I do it to help the site be as accurate as possible, as I hate seeing all those servers on zero entries. That, and I like the challenge of seeing just how many updates I can get... but the prizes don't come into it with me, they're just a nice addition if I get lucky.

And as Eyeball said, I have a 2nd account so generally if I'm awake and at my computer I'll have censuses running on the laptop... not 24/7 by any means, but a fair amount of the time.
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