WarcraftReamls.com
  FAQFAQ    SearchSearch    MemberlistMemberlist    UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
  ProfileProfile    Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages    Log inLog in 
sample/data cause of weekly faction trend divergence?
Goto page 1, 2  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    WarcraftRealms.com Forum Index -> Census Talks
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
deficineiron



Joined: 20 Sep 2011
Posts: 6

WR Updates: 0
deficineiron WR Profile

PostPosted: Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:44 am    Post subject: sample/data cause of weekly faction trend divergence? Reply with quote

Hi, this refers to the weekly faction activity graph. Notably, horde has trended down sharply over a few weeks now while alliance has been more or less flat. While single data points do diverge and correct quickly (and I am under the impression that the month of december's plot points should be removed and the two january's connected to november?), the current horde activity is a trend, and an alarming one at that, both in direction and divergence from alliance activity.

is there an underlying lack of recent census data compared to the previous weeks and months which might be fueling the drop in horde activity? If it is taken at face value, it has fallen 15% this quarter! (versus roughly 5% or less drop for alliance activity), which begs the question why just one faction? (speculation I read elsewhere on this was that the free-to=play accounts might have more younger players choosing alliance, but who knows.)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't have enough data to give you facts, so I am going to settle for an educated guess. The amount of census data is declining (partially because several "heavy hitters" have either quit or significantly reduced their contributions, partially because there really is less data to be found, in other words, people have taken longer breaks off WoW or quit entirely). Alliance has always been somewhat more popular on normal realms and as far as I can tell, one major group playing less are those who do PvP (which in turn has apparently always been somewhat Horde dominated).

I am not saying WCR and WoW are dying, but it is fairly obvious that both have taken hits, some of them rather heavy. Blizzard will not go bankrupt if they lose a few hundred thousand players, but the effect will be felt here, both directly as Census users quit playing and submitting and indirectly as the remaining addon users have less to see...

A bit over a year ago, reaching an average of 20k updates a day was fairly routine for me. Nowadays, failing to reach 10k daily average is starting to look like a probable future. In fact, with bad luck, it might even happen this month. Granted, there have been some setbacks (couple of severe crashes earlier this month destroyed a significant amount of my unsubmitted data), but even ignoring those, it's quite likely that this will be my worst submission month ever in terms of updates since I started using the addon almost three years ago...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
deficineiron



Joined: 20 Sep 2011
Posts: 6

WR Updates: 0
deficineiron WR Profile

PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your reply. To clarify - when you say 20k updates a day vs nearly 10k or soon now, do you mean the entire census was getting 20k updates from users a day, or that you personally were doing 20k updates a day?

If it is you personally, does that mean that your update count is lower due to lower population of the same realms you have done before?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry for being slightly obscure. I was speaking about my personal results. Also, to be honest, my covered servers list isn't entirely static. On December 7th, 2010 I chose slash out several realms, because I wanted more space for new races / race-class combinations. Together with the problems with the addon itself, my result levels sunk, which was not unexpected.

Until now, January through to end of August, I was able to maintain a submission rate that slightly exceeded 310k updates a month or 10k updates a day on average. As of right now, due to my physical location, for me it's already Friday the 30th, though from WCR point of view it's still late Thursday afternoon. I currently have 288,319 updates for this month and one submission has not been processsed yet. Furthermore, I am still running censuses on the background as I type these lines. Even so, I will need to get some sleep fairly soon. Which leaves me with probably slightly under 10k to achieve in less than 31 hours, if I wish to break the 300k updates monthly barrier for 35th time in a row.

It is by no means an impossible task, but for the second time in my entire WCR history, the result is by no means guaranteed. I need to sleep and devote time to other matters than WoW.

But, to your question. Realm population is not the only deciding factor as far as updates are concerned. It isn't even the only defining factor when we talk about activity levels, which you are interested in. Further, identical activity levels between two realms do not lead to identical updates figures or vice versa. Why, you may well ask. Well, one major reason is that though there are similarities, realms don't have identical population structures. Censusing an 85s heavy realm of high population may infact produce less updates than running one on a medium sized realm, where a larger portion of server population is still leveling up.

Secondly, WCR is entirely reliant on user submissions. We don't have 24/7 coverage of all realms... and due to how the addon works, even if we did, some people who make very quick visits would still slip through the cracks.

Third interesting factor which springs to mind is the structure of submission makers themselves. I can't give you any figures, but I can practically guarantee that all of us have at least slight bias for one faction or the other. It's entirely possible that less Horde data is being gathered and submitted compared to Alliance data...

I am tempted to write more, but my eyelids are getting heavy and my brain is starting to feel fuzzy, so I better get some of that sleep and continue when I am awake again. Good night/evening/day/morning to all reading this...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
taggme



Joined: 30 Sep 2011
Posts: 1
Location: earth
WR Updates: 28,966
taggme WR Profile

PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:04 pm    Post subject: question Reply with quote

Been using the site for... a while and only just recently am I starting to gather data for this site.


just a quick question of O_O how are you doing 20k submissions a day?




and as to the original post. Blizzard has said that there are more inactive accounts than active ones now. (which would certainly be a factor of why numbers appear down)
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Balgair
Araiceil


Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 1483
Location: UK
WR Updates: 10,829,931
Balgair WR Profile

PostPosted: Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He does it by censusing many servers, particularly ones which aren't being covered by others. I have no idea how he manages to keep it up consistently though; I tend to run out of time, or want to be playing my main server too much to keep up mass censusing for long. I can keep it up for a couple of months, but ER has been doing these kinds of numbers for years Shocked
_________________
EU-Draenor:
-- Sagart - Tairbh - Buinne - Balgair - Eilnich - Ruire - Dubh - Laidir - Naomh --
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Sat Oct 01, 2011 6:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, yesterday went by rather quickly. Very Happy In the end, I managed to push over the 300k updates mark, though by the narrowest margin I have ever had, ending up with 303 506.

Taggme, Balgair already covered several reasons. Just a minor correction though... I don't think anyone on this site has 20k+ submissions yet... Very Happy As that would require 10 daily submissions for 2000 days... or well over 5 years. Very Happy 20k+ updates a day, on the other hand, is (or at least was) achievable by running censuses on many realms, avoiding repeats within a period between two submissions, submitting multiple times per day and in the end, just spending enough time online.

I don't play 10+ hours a day, but achieving 10+ hours of time online isn't currently very hard for me. But... high numbers don't necessarily require huge hours online. Picking the right about 5-6 high population factions between roughly 19.30 and 21.30 might net you 8000+ updates in a single day.

Just out of curiosity, since I have achieved most of what I want to do today in terms of Brewfest, I'll try running censuses on low / no submissions factions during the evening. Smile

Happy censusing, everyone! Smile
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Sun Oct 02, 2011 1:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, it's Sunday morning and the results from last evening & night are in... and they are rather mindblowing...

After my previous post, I made two submissions, which netted me with:

14 454 new, 24 186 updates
984 new, 1 752 updates

With what I had done earlier the daily totals went up to:

16 178 new, 29 805 updates

I would say my little experiment was successful... Very HappyVery HappyVery Happy
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
deficineiron



Joined: 20 Sep 2011
Posts: 6

WR Updates: 0
deficineiron WR Profile

PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

looking at the latest update to the data today, it looks like alliance faction activity was lowered across the board going back several weeks. Any log or known reason whey these corrections happen?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Database statistics page data indicates that number of characters seen in the past 7 days has gone down even further. I suspect that it may play at least some role in the activity loss... The figure now barely exceeds 1,1 million... I can still remotely recall older times when it was roughly twice as much, occasionally even more than that... Though, if my theory is correct, Horde side should be experiencing at least some reduction too.

Even there are differences, though... as of my quick count, on the EU side 29 Alliance factions have no data at all, on the Horde side the figure is as of right now 22.

On US side the situation reverses... Alliance: 9, Horde: 17 realms with no data.

I am too tired to do a more thorough analysis right now... I'll write more at some later time...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
deficineiron



Joined: 20 Sep 2011
Posts: 6

WR Updates: 0
deficineiron WR Profile

PostPosted: Mon Oct 03, 2011 8:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your reply. What I mean by lowered is the data points for dates past on the previous graph are lower now than they were last week, e.g. data for 2 weeks ago alliance is lower than the same time/data point was before the update. The entire curve of the last month of alliance has changed from about 4 points back in this last update.

Thanks again for your insight, this is a fascinating process.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Tue Oct 04, 2011 3:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am sorry for having to offer just another educated guess, not a fact...

The graph seems to operate with four points per month... BUT... with the exception of February, months aren't exactly 28 days long. Which, I presume, means that actual average weekly activity doesn't get set in stone before the entire month has ended.

And so, the question becomes... is a 31 day long month:

a) 7+7+7+10 days long?
b) 8+8+8+7 days long?
c) some other variant of the options above?
d) something that I didn't even think of?
e) I misread the graph and it's for example 7+7+7+7+3 days long?

Also, we already have a data point for the first "week" of this month, even though it is only the 4th. This seems to support I my suspicion that the data gets recalculated (daily/everytime someone calls for it?) until the month is completely over.

And by "completely over", I mean until no further data is submitted for it. Due to timezone differences, for example, I myself, monthly supply (large amounts of) data that still affects the previous month. Someone who submits very rarely, might cause such alterations much later, possibly even weeks later.

As a stopgap measure, I suggest you might want to monitor some slightly older data point(s)... let's say the weeks of August, for example. They should remain as they are as it's not likely that anyone would add any more "new" data for August.

I apologise for possibly being unclear, I didn't sleep very well last night and am therefore not entirely sure if my "reasoning" works properly... :/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Balgair
Araiceil


Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 1483
Location: UK
WR Updates: 10,829,931
Balgair WR Profile

PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2011 5:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1974ER wrote:
Just out of curiosity, since I have achieved most of what I want to do today in terms of Brewfest, I'll try running censuses on low / no submissions factions during the evening. Smile

Happy censusing, everyone! Smile


Seems you've done some good work - there's no more 0 submission servers in Europe Very Happy May not last long but it's nice to see the 0's eliminated, been ages since that happened Smile
_________________
EU-Draenor:
-- Sagart - Tairbh - Buinne - Balgair - Eilnich - Ruire - Dubh - Laidir - Naomh --
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2011 8:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you, though I can't claim all the credit... not even with the fact that Saturday and yesterday combined I updated the status of approximately 120 different factions... I am not sure if Eloise sees this, but if she? does, I want to extend a big thank you that way as well. Smile

As for 0s, they keep slipping back in... there is at least one already again... :/ We really need more coverage... and that seems unlikely. Sad It rather seems that with some rare exceptions, the submission numbers are going down. I don't like saying this, but unless we get at least a few new active members, the day when the "0 war" is lost may come sooner than I would like.

Blizzard can afford to lose 500k customers... We, on the other, bleed horribly if we lose 5... I can just imagine the impact of what would happen if I, you, Gmmmpresser, Postponer and for example Eloise quit entirely. In just 24 hours, multiple realms would start to deteorate and on 31st day, 0s would rule supreme on the most wanted lists and elsewhere. Such a blow would not directly kill the site, but it would render it much less useful.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Balgair
Araiceil


Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 1483
Location: UK
WR Updates: 10,829,931
Balgair WR Profile

PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2011 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dammit didn't take long for that 0 to appear - it'll be gone again when my next submission gets processed though, used my only empty character slot on it Wink

And yes, a few people make a big difference here - I feel bad for not doing so much updates as I used to, since that's dragging it down a bit. I try to at least run over all my characters once a month or so, but that's just covering maybe 50-60 servers, and since I prefer to not delete characters from servers that aren't well covered, I don't tend to take on many new ones with 0 submissions.

I suspect things won't improve much until Rollie has the time to look after the site again though, since potential new members will think the site is quite neglected-looking and be put off. Of course some will join anyway, but seems to me most new people on the forum are here to ask why something is out of date, and all we can do is say "it'll be updated when Rollie comes back", which isn't too definite an answer Confused

That being said, we (well, you and Eloise Smile) have done well to get it back to no 0's for now, it's been absolutely loads of 0's ever since Cataclysm and the issues then, so to get it back to where it is now is a major improvement Smile Now we just need a power-censuser or two on the US servers to get rid of their 0's!
_________________
EU-Draenor:
-- Sagart - Tairbh - Buinne - Balgair - Eilnich - Ruire - Dubh - Laidir - Naomh --
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2011 9:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, under current circumstances it's very hard to imagine a day when no realm at all would 0 out. I am hoping the Spanish servers stay that way for the next 24 or so days since there are so few of them. The German and French realms will be more of a challenge... and the English ones were in utter shambles... I ran more "patches" on them than on the French, German and Spanish realms combined. :/

Rollie's long absense is of course regrettable, but real life matters must take first priority, the site is just a hobby after all. Until then, I, you and the other "oldsters" have to try to keep things together at least somewhat and assist the newcomers the best we can... Smile

As for US... One busy person could fix it... in about 1/4th of the time I needed for my share of EU "patching", no less, if (s)he started running censuses very early US time to reduce individual census lengths. Overall it's interesting to note that this might be the first time in almost 2 years when EU realms have better theoretical coverage than the US ones. :/
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Balgair
Araiceil


Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 1483
Location: UK
WR Updates: 10,829,931
Balgair WR Profile

PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2011 9:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah the English realms were dreadful. I noticed somebody fixed the French ones a week or so back, which helped a lot, and German always were better covered than the rest, Spanish are badly covered but easy for 1-2 of us to run 1 census a month, given there's so few of them. There's a lot of English realms though and not many that seem to have active censusers playing on them.

I wish there wasn't a character limit on accounts, would be nice to be able to census all needed servers without having to delete and make new characters, I find it far easier to just leave my characters existing!
_________________
EU-Draenor:
-- Sagart - Tairbh - Buinne - Balgair - Eilnich - Ruire - Dubh - Laidir - Naomh --
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Fri Oct 07, 2011 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to agree with you... I just doubt that Blizzard would be very happy with me having approximately 650 characters spread "all over creation". Very Happy

Yes, the extemely limited number of Spanish realms simplifies that part... as does the fact that someone tries to keep part of them up. Germans tend to have reasonable coverage, apparently by a few people who do not really post here, but do a fair bit of important censusing work. Same goes for a fair portion of French realms.

The English realms are the biggest problem area. There are a lot of them and some of them have had poor coverage for literally years. A fair number of them suffer from generically low population, which amplifies the problem. On a large realm, the likelyhood of at least one person having Censusplus installed goes up quickly.

And some realms are obviously covered by multiple people... It's a shame we can't offer everyone who comes here looking for info just that. A well established database, which isn't reliant on a single person.

US-Whisperwind, 567 Alliance entries
EU-Scarshield Legion, 785 Horde entries (large part of these are mine)
EU-Spinebreaker, 507 Horde entries
EU-Alleria, 321 Horde and 282 Alliance entries (part of both are mine)
EU-Culte de la Rive Noir, 812 Alliance entries
EU-Die Todeskrallen, 622 Horde and 849 Alliance entries
EU-Un'Goro, 402 Horde entries

Couple of things stand out on that list of some of the (currently) best covered factions... US side is massively underpresented and none of the Spanish ones have superior coverage. Having the coverage level of EU-Die Todeskrallen would pretty much be Rollie's dreams come true... Sadly, we are REALLY far off.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Balgair
Araiceil


Joined: 30 Sep 2005
Posts: 1483
Location: UK
WR Updates: 10,829,931
Balgair WR Profile

PostPosted: Sat Oct 08, 2011 6:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rofl yeah, I can see why they don't allow it but still, would be nice Very Happy

Been impressed by the German realms lately, whoever's taken them up is doing good things - actually, Eloise seems to have a character on a German realm (although most are on English), perhaps she's responsible? Would make sense if so Smile Some of the Spanish work is me (Tyrande, Los Errantes, Sanguino all both sides, 4-5 others on one side), no idea who's doing the rest but it all keeps up, thankfully!

Those are some nice numbers indeed, if only we could get more realms that well covered! At least my own home realm EU Draenor finally has somebody censusing on Alliance, I used to pop up every time someone on the realm forums moaned about the data (every few weeks there was someone claiming the data said there was 90% Horde pop on the server, when in reality it's about 60-65%) and point out that Alliance data went to the pits after I switched to Horde, evidently someone took the hint and got the addon since it actually keeps up even when I don't play my ally alts now, phew! For one of the highest population servers in Europe, there's only two people censusing though, one on each side (Horde dips to nonexistent if I take a break), that's not too good a ratio.

I suspect a lot of realms are reliant upon one person, or strongly helped anyway, EU-Dun Morogh used to be one I'd notice for really high numbers a year or so back... now, someone I know from another forum plays there, and I know he uses Censusplus. He stopped playing a few months ago and now I see it's down to good-enough-but-not-amazing numbers, no coincidence I suspect! Even one person per realm is something anyway, I always delete my census alts when I see numbers get over about 30, since that indicates somebody's censusing at least enough to keep it covered, just a shame that most English realms in particular are nowhere near that level.
_________________
EU-Draenor:
-- Sagart - Tairbh - Buinne - Balgair - Eilnich - Ruire - Dubh - Laidir - Naomh --
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
1974ER
Epic Censi


Joined: 07 Nov 2008
Posts: 723

WR Updates: 22,681,459
1974ER WR Profile

PostPosted: Sun Oct 09, 2011 1:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Indeed. Very HappyVery HappyVery Happy However, even upping the maximum to just 100 would help tremendously. Though not topic related directly, I also wish they pushed the maximum per realm to 12 or so, since there are persistant rumours of a new class, though people can't agree upon what class that is... :/

Some German realms have enjoyed a high census level for a long time and I think they actually have the best Censususer to number of realms ratio.

Off the cuff I can't recall ever seeing a post by a French Censusplus user, but there obviously have to be some... Very Happy

I sometimes dip in a minor bit of Spanish data, mostly when multiple realms have had 0s for longer periods.

The English realms... They make me sigh... Sad I can still (very vaguely) remember a time, when most of the ones not being covered by others could be held up at 1 by my efforts alone, but that was somewhere around the time you broke monthly updates and new ones records and my play to just census ratio was different.

And, yes, I am sure your suspicion is entirely correct. Funny thing is... a single person who would wake up early and run a few censuses (about 5 factions per day) on premade "permanent alts" could in theory hold up around 145 factions at 1+ with an time investment of roughly 15 minutes per day. At that sort of rate... 5 people would suffice to give each and every EU realm minimal coverage, if they managed to avoid massive overlapping (there would automatically be some), another 5 would give entire US same minimal coverage.

I already regularly cover a much higher number of factions per day (because I actually play on 6 factions and average 10+ others per day at my current "minimal effort" level), so all I can offer are some occasional activity spikes of "running all over" to "kill off some 0s".
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    WarcraftRealms.com Forum Index -> Census Talks All times are GMT - 6 Hours
Goto page 1, 2  Next
Page 1 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
WarcraftRealms.com  


Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group